Beat Manchester City on Saturday and Leicester will win the Premier league title, draw or lose at Etihad Stadium and they will have to settle for second place.
That is the verdict of SAM (Sports Analytic Machine, the super-computer built by Ian Mchale professor of sports analytic at the Univerity of Salford together with his colleague Tarak Kharrat.
We've asked
SAM to predict the outcome of every Premier League game between now and
the end of the season - and the results suggest the race will be so
tight that the destination of the title hinges on this one game.
If you're sceptical about the ability of a computer to predict football matches, it is worth noting that SAM took on BBC pundit Mark Lawrenson
in Lawro's predictions earlier this season and remains top of the guest
leaderboard, having been more accurate than any other participant
during 2015-16.
How it all hinges on one game
According to SAM, Leicester will lose only one more match this season
- their game against Manchester United at Old Trafford on 30 April.
So
excluding Saturday's game, the two teams are predicted to be separated
by less than half a point at the end of the season, with a series of
draws allowing Manchester City to leapfrog Leicester.
Note: SAM calculates expected points by taking the probability of winning and multiplying it by three points for a win/one point for a draw, hence the decimal points in predicted points totals |
That tiny margin shows just how big an impact the weekend's meeting
could have. Here's how the table will vary at the end of the season
depending on the outcome:
That tiny margin shows just how big an impact the weekend's meeting
could have. Here's how the table will vary at the end of the season
depending on the outcome:
The bad news for Leicester fans? SAM has Saturday's game down as a
draw, meaning Manchester City will go on to win a third Premier League
title in five seasons.
Game by game - how the season will play out
A
draw on Saturday will keep Leicester in control at the top of the table
for the time being, while three wins in their following five games will
strengthen their position.
But SAM expects Manchester City to be
similarly consistent, and predicts they will finally overtake the Foxes
on 23 April with a home win against Stoke, while Leicester's home draw
with Swansea on the same weekend will prove costly.
It is a lead Manuel Pellegrini's men will not relinquish. Despite a
predicted winless final three games to the season for Manchester City
(draws against Southampton, Swansea and Arsenal), Leicester will also
fail to win any of their last three fixtures (loss to Manchester United
before draws with Everton and Chelsea).
If things do go as
predicted it will make for a thrilling end to the season, with the title
race going to the final day, but Manchester City will be champions and
Leicester will have to make do with second and a place in the Champions
League.
SAM takes into account a wide range of factors to work out match
results, looking at average performances so far and calculating what
that means for the remaining fixtures. It is based on players remaining
fit and continuing with their average performance levels, so an injury
to Sergio Aguero or Jamie Vardy, for example, would have a significant
impact on these predicted outcomes.
From BBCnews
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